Despite news reports and media obsession, there is very little chance the Democratic party’s nomination will rest in the hands of the so-called superdelegates. If neither Obama nor Clinton has a majority, as the convention begins, it will instead become a state-by-state free-for-all.
Delegates are not bound to vote for the candidate they were elected to support. As convention time draws near, pressure will mount, not only on uncommitteds and delegates who were elected for John Edwards and other candidates, but also on the Obama and Clinton delegates themselves.
In states where one candidate won big and the party establishment is behind that candidate, there will be pressure to “make it unanimous.” The primary/caucus may have happened months before and there will be an evolving consensus that one or the other “should” be the nominee. The superdelegates do not vote all together, they represent a proportion in each state. So what will happen during the roll call is not “And the superdelegates cast X votes for Obama and Y votes for Clinton.” Instead you will have: “The great state of California…blah, blah, blah…is proud to historically cast ALL its votes for the next President of the United States…Hillary Clinton. Then, we get micro-revolts: Vermont goes all in for Obama…New York tries to abstain…Florida delegates show up and demand to be seated, etc.
That is a nightmare outcome that neither Clinton nor Obama will allow. The Convention is supposed to be a happy party to anoint the nominee and dish up a week of media sound bites to launch the fall campaign. If it becomes a debate about what democracy is…it will be a mess. The great drama of what democracy is is already being played out in the fact that we have a real contest between two strong candidates now. Neither is diminished as they attempt to distinguish themselves as better than the other. But if the focus become procedural…it will be an idiotic failure that satisfies no one.
The job of the convention is to pick the candidate most likely to beat John McCain. That will be done by consensus over the course of the next few months and the roll call will be a formality. In fact, this nomination presents Obama with a taste of what he will have to look forward to in leading this country…if he can manage to emerge victorious–not just by a technicality…but to cause the party to nominate him AND feel good about it…that is EXACTLY the type of leadership we need in Washington. It’s not about responding to negative ads or being properly “vetted.” The real challenge is more subtle, to win, in a tightly contested contest, in a way that preserves victory.
In 1992, those of us who supported candidates like Paul Tsongas or Jerry Brown could vote for him, then fall in behind Clinton for the election because our votes didn’t make a difference and were symbolic…but if it goes down to the wire, every delegate’s vote does count…and who knows what will happen?
The challenge is made all the more difficult by the imperfect system itself. Can you believe the Democratic Party decided to ignore Florida and Michigan? I guess Florida has never been a very important state in Presidential elections. I think for Hillary, the battle is tactical–she can win if she plays her cards right…but for Obama, the challenge is not to just win, but to carry us above the chaos…to find a way to win with grace and dignity and in spite of the messy situation that is evolving. A worthy President will lead and will not have to rely on gamesmanship. Save that for November.
It will be telling to see how Obama and Clinton approach this. In 1992, the Bill Clinton campaign fought hard from day 1 to convince delegates committed to Tsongas and Brown that their votes were wasted and they should join Clinton. I was called by the state party Executive Director and told that Clinton was the one and I should just “swallow” and accept it…that I was doing no good for the party in encouraging Tsongas delegates to continue participating in the nominating process. If that is the tactic Hillary uses to win the nomination…it’s politics as usual. I really want to hope Obama can be different and can win differently.
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